Options market predicts chance of Bitcoin hitting all-time high in 2020 is 4%

Bitcoin’s multi-month consolidation phase is narrowing as the cryptocurrency now trades between $9,100 and $9,200.

The incredibly low volatility that has come about as a result of this has only been seen a handful of times throughout its history and suggests that a major movement is looming on the horizon.

That being said, one important fragment of the crypto market doesn’t seem to think that this next big movement will be enough to spark the next parabolic uptrend.

According to data, Bitcoin’s options market is only pricing in a four percent chance of Bitcoin hitting its all-time highs of $20,000 by the end of the year.

The options market is placing a low likelihood on Bitcoin hitting its all-time highs in 2020 

Bitcoin is currently trading down over fifty percent from its previously established all-time highs of roughly $20,000.

This number was hit in late-2017 during the peak of the crypto market, and the closest that the benchmark crypto has gotten to revisiting these highs was last summer when its price rocketed to $13,800.

There are significant debates amongst investors as to what could catalyze a rise back to these highs.

Previously, investors suspected that institutional involvement would help create a tailwind, but these entities have been getting more involved within the markets with no tangible impact on BTC’s macro trend.

Because of the lack of clarity regarding what could provide Bitcoin with parabolic momentum in the months ahead, the options market is only pricing in a four percent chance of BTC hitting $20,000 this year.

Crypto data aggregator Unfolded spoke about this in a recent tweet while referencing data from the analytics platform Skew.

“Bitcoin hitting ATH by end of the year —  4%.”

Bitcoin
Image Courtesy of Unfolded. Data source: Skew

Why Bloomberg analysts disagree with the options market

In their June crypto market research report, Bloomberg analysts explained that history shows BTC may rally towards $20,000 by the end of the year.

They note that BTC is closely mirroring the post-halving price action seen in 2016, which entailed a long consolidation bout followed by a parabolic surge at the end of the year.

“Bitcoin is mirroring the 2016 return to its previous peak. That was the last time supply was halved, and the third year after a significant peak… Bitcoin will approach the record high of about $20,000 this year, in our view, if it follows 2016’s trend.”

For this to occur, it will require a massive influx of capital from multiple sources – likely both retail and institutional investors.

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